Thursday, April 29, 2010

Racing Rachel

Tomorrow, the odyssey to my bluegrass heaven begins, but the biggest race of the weekend may not even be between the rails. As I've mentioned previously, the majestic filly Rachel Alexandra will be running on Friday. However, her race's post time is scheduled for 1:26 p.m. Jim and I land at 11:02 a.m.- in Indianapolis. Fortunately, Perry will already be waiting outside in his most dapper driver's cap, waiting to whisk the three of us down the interstate. It's 131 miles from the Indy airport to Churchill Downs in Louisville. With any luck, we'll get to the gate on time, run through the airport like O.J. Simpson, and be on the road no later than 11:30 a.m. That leaves us less than two hours to get there, park, navigate the crowd, and rush as close to trackside as possible to see this beauty run. In the best of circumstances, we'd even be able to lay a bet down, but that might be asking too much. Early morning line on us getting there on time is 50-1. If we make it, I vow to crown Perry with a garland of pink lillies. But, if we are late, weep no more for us. Stay tuned for stories and pictures to come after the weekend.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

I'm Going To Kentucky, I'm Going to the Fair...

The long-anticipated adventure to Kentucky is almost here and I am giddy with excitement. It has been two and a half months since Andrea surprised me with this gift on Valentine’s Day, which has bought her a lifetime of “You have the coolest wife ever” platitudes by my friends. I have previewed several races involving Derby contenders and conspired with my fellow explorers Jim and Perry to plot out the course of our weekend. The racing and the atmosphere, if not the weather, promise to be fantastic. Here’s the plan:

Friday, April 30th- Jim and I board an 8:30 a.m. flight from New York to Indianapolis, where we will meet up with Perry, who will have already landed, rented a car and fetched supplies by the time we arrive at 11:00 a.m. We will then drive the 130 miles from Indy to Louisville, hopefully in less than two hours. Not the most convenient way to get to Churchill Downs, but it was the cheapest, and I’d rather donate my money to predatory establishments of gambling than the airline industry.
We will hightail it down I-65 as fast (and legally) as we can in order to catch as much of Oaks day at the track as possible. Oaks day is for the ladies (and the fillies) and will have some fine races, including the La Troienne Stakes, with Rachel Alexandra scheduled to run. As of last year, the Oaks has added to its long history of traditions by dedicating its day to Breast Cancer Awareness, calling for all attendees to wear pink. I plan to wear my daughter’s bib if I fail in my attempt to fit into a onesie.
After the races are over, we plan to soak in the Derby weekend nightlife in Louisville’s finest establishments, but not too late into the night because…

Saturday, May 1st-
At the track by 8:00 a.m. The first race doesn’t go off until 10:30 a.m., but it’s a land rush for those who want to watch the action from the infield. Unlike at Belmont Park, Churchill Downs permits, nay encourages, attendees to watch/party/bet in the infield. Rather than sitting in reserved seats and wearing silly hats, we will be among the people, the real horse lovers and racing aficionados, and of course, the Runners of the Urinals. I have witnessed the Running of the Bulls in Pamplona, but this tradition has a decidedly American flair to it. In any case, 80,000 people fill the infield on Derby day, so it behooves us to stake our claim to a plot of land near the third turn, where we can see the horses make their move. Throughout the day, we plan to study the forms, argue nonsensically about who will win each race and how to bet, change our minds at the betting windows, watch the races and refresh ourselves. Rinse and repeat 13 times (there are actually two more races after the Derby, allowing for ample opportunity to leave empty handed).

It’s going to be another crowded field for the Derby, as 20 horses are currently scheduled to run. There will be some scratches (Wood Memorial winner Eskendereya has already been ruled out), reducing the traffic on the dirt a little bit, but there will be lots of studying to do for this race. The post position draw was held today, which was done randomly rather than the usual double tier selection process. Here are a few of the contenders to look out for:

Lookin’ at Lucky- After getting squeezed out on the rail during the Santa Anita Derby, favorite Lookin’ at Lucky is going to have to dig his way out from crowd on the rail again because he drew the 1 spot. This is going to make it very difficult to get clear unless he shoots out of the gate well in front and hopes to go wire to wire. Otherwise, he’ll have to navigate traffic and I didn’t like the way Garrett Gomez ran him in California. There are too many other quality horses for me to feel confident about this one, even if he is the early favorite at 3-1.

Sidney’s Candy- The recipient of Gomez’s gaffe, Sidney’s Candy won the Santa Anita Derby in impressive fashion, even slowing down near the end to save himself for Louisville. However, he drew the far outside post at number 20 and is going to have to work harder to get around the turn without putting on too much extra mileage from that spot. Sidney’s Candy is listed at 5-1, which looks fair to me.

Stately Victor- The longshot winner at Keeneland for the Blue Grass Stakes in Lexington, Stately Victor romped to the winner’s circle. He’s been hit-or-miss through his career, but he now has two wins to his credit and I like him again this Saturday, especially at the 6 spot, just outside of Line of David and Super Saver. And at 30-1 odds, I am going to have a hard time resisting that payoff.

Line of David- The winner of the Arkansas Derby won wire-to-wire, and looked strong in doing so. The biggest knock on Line of David is that he ain’t seasoned on dirt, with only that one race under his belt. But at 30-1, I like his value, especially at the 5 gate.

Super Saver- Finishing second at Oaklawn in Arkansas, he spent most of the race looking up the ass of Line of David before losing by a nose. He’ll be running inside of Line of David at number 4, but I’m just not sure he’s a closer, even though his odds are better at 15-1.

Awesome Act- Finishing third to Eskendereya in the Wood Memorial isn’t something to be ashamed of, but it was a small field of six horses, and the European took his time getting toward the front of the pack. I have doubts about how he’ll handle a crowded field at Churchill, though the 16 spot won’t hurt him as much as the 20 spot will hurt Lookin’ at Lucky. I could easily see Awesome Act biding his time in the back of the pack and pacing into the money, but I’m not sure he’s a winner in this field. Could be a trifecta box pick at 10-1.

Devil May Care- The lone filly in the race, she has a nice position at 11, but she’s owned by Todd Pletcher, the Susan Lucci of horse trainers. None of his 24 previous entries have won the Derby. She is getting a lot of buzz at 10-1, but a filly hasn’t won the Derby since ’88, so she has a lot of history against her.

Keep an eye out for all of these horses, as well as Paddy O’Prado and Dublin, if you decide to tune in to NBC on Saturday from 5:00-7:00, with post time scheduled for 6:24 p.m. ESPN is covering the earlier races from 11:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. And if you’re a ladies man (or woman), catch the Oaks on Bravo on Friday at 5:00 p.m.

As for me, I’ll be catching it all live, up close and personal. A dream come true.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Top Ten Sporting Events I've Attended: Part II

Part II of my Top Ten follows. Part I can be found here.

5. Belmont Stakes- June 7th, 1997
A fantastic introduction to the sport of kings for me, with Touch Gold denying Silver Charm’s pursuit of a Triple Crown. Read about my experience in depth here. We’ll see where this year’s Derby ranks with the ’97 Belmont.

4. Syracuse vs. UConn, Big East Quarterfinals- March 12th, 2009
Possibly one of the greatest college basketball games of all time, I was lucky enough to be there with my brother Adam and my cousin Josh, then 14 years-old and by no rights should have been up until 1:22 a.m. watching hoops in Madison Square Garden. But when two top-25 rivals are battling through 6 overtimes in the Big East tournament, bedtimes go out the window. The game was tight throughout, with UConn leading 37-34 at halftime, then Syracuse controlling the end of regulation until UConn tied it with 4 seconds left. With the score 71-71, Syracuse’s Eric Devendorf nailed a long three-pointer at the buzzer that sent the crowd into a frenzy and then left us with baited breath as the officials took forever to see whether he had released the ball before the clock hit 0.0. He had not, and we were set for overtime. And overtime again. And overtime four more times. Each overtime until the last, UConn took the lead and experimented with new ways to blow it, including missed free throws and layups. Two of the overtimes featured just three buckets each. People who looked like they had previously been wiping the floor emerged onto the court wearing authentic jerseys and handling the ball when player after player fouled out. In spite of this, the game was unbelievable in its tenacity between the teams and remarkable clutching performances all around. A.J. Price was a man afire for UConn, but ultimately Jonny Flynn outdueled him with his relentless attack of the basket, constantly drawing fouls that sent him to the line where he was money every time. In an odd twist to this game that found itself tied at six buzzers, Syracuse ended up winning by 10 points, as UConn had nothing left for the sixth overtime. Being in the crowd was electrifying, as the fans cheered each extra period, like Michael Jordan counting titles, rooting for more and more and each time getting their wish. And yes, there were fans around us who left after regulation. I pity the fools.

3. Tigers at Red Sox-July 2nd, 1995
Now we’re getting into personal territory. The top three on this list were all attended with my late grandmother Ethel, who I called Nanny. Nanny raised two great kids, one of whom is my mom, and had the tragic misfortune of having to live the last 30 years of her life alone, after my grandfather was shot in a robbery of his store in suburban Boston, two years before I was born. Over the years, when she wasn’t visiting her grandchildren, Nanny kept company many nights with Ned Martin, Ken Coleman, Joe Castiglione and Jerry Trupiano: the voices of the Red Sox radio network. Some nights, she would watch on TV as the Red Sox pushed and pulled on her heartstrings, say “To hell with ‘em,” get into bed and inevitably switch on the radio to listen to the bitter end. She loved those ballplayers and all at once couldn’t stand them, and that’s the way it was as a Red Sox fan, and that’s the way it will always be for those who lived through the lean years. Unfortunately, Nanny never lived to see the 2004 Idiots win it all, passing away to cancer in March, 2003.
1995 was one of those particularly anguishing years, where the Boston boys were good (Mo Vaughn, John Valentin, Mike Greenwell, Jose Canseco, Tim Wakefield, Rick Aguilera) but not good enough (Zane Smith, Vaughn Eshelman, the then-corpse of Roger Clemens). The season started late because of the strike that had snuffed out the 1994 season, including the playoffs, and lingered into spring, like a bad fart that left a pungent trail between the point of impact and casually sauntered-to new location of the offender. So, with some baseball purists left behind, holding their nose at the audacity of a strike by millionaires who play a game most of us would play for $50,000 plus benefits, Major League Baseball carried on, and I with it. I was 19 years old, spending the summer in Palmer, Mass. as a camp counselor, with an opportunity to spend an off weekend with Nanny, who had scored us two tickets to a Red Sox-Tigers game in July. Mo Vaughn was my favorite player at the time and he was easy to like. Big, lumbering lefty slugger who crouched over the plate before uncorking monstrous home runs beyond the Pesky Pole in right. As an added bonus, Clemens was the starter and I still had great love for him even though he appeared to be in the now-famous “twilight of his career.” He and Wade Boggs were the heroes of my youth, so I couldn’t let him go so easily. Nanny and I settled into our seats in the grandstands on the first base side, safely under cover of the second deck and in view of any number of green pillars prefacing the action on the field. The game turned out to wild, with 13 total runs scored in the third inning (five given up by Rajah), two triples by the second greatest Black Irish of all time, Troy O’Leary, and best of all, not one, but two towering home runs by my man Mo Vaughn. Still, the Sox decided to make things interesting by blowing a 5 run lead in the top of the ninth inning, only to win 12-11 in walk-off fashion with a Lee Tinsley single to right in the bottom of the inning. Great day at the ballpark with Nanny all the way around.

2. Devil Rays at Red Sox, August 14th, 2000
After finishing graduate school in St. Louis, I moved to Boston for a year, in part to be closer to Nanny. She was 85 at the time, and while spry as ever, not a frequent visitor to Fenway Park. I was living right in Kenmore Square and convinced her to come with me to a Red Sox-Devil Rays game in August. This team had Pedro Martinez in his prime, but little else besides Nomar Garciaparra, the combustible Carl Everett, and Derek Lowe as its closer. It was the kind of team that needed to sign Manny Ramirez after the season. In those days (old man alert!), before the dawn of the pink hat era, you could walk up to the ballpark during the season and still buy tickets at the window with American cash. Nanny drove in from Melrose, where she had lived since selling her old house in nearby Malden several years earlier, and we went together into the ballpark. Our seats were in the right field bleachers, just beyond the bullpens and it was an unseasonably cool night in the Fens. Pedro was pitching that night, so the place was rocking as usual. The Red Sox tied the score at the 3 in the sixth inning and it remained that way in the seventh and the eighth, and into the bottom of the ninth. Nanny was clearly tiring and I knew she wouldn’t last into extras. I asked if she could give me one more inning and she nodded. After the leadoff man got on and stole second, the next two men went down quickly, and it didn’t look like we’d be able to watch the end of the game from the seats. Then the Tampa Bay manager decided to intentionally walk Carl Everett. Up came Nomar, but before Nomar-mania could begin, the manager called for another intentional walk. The bases were now loaded for Rico Brogna, a local boy and former Phillies regular who had been claimed off waivers by the Red Sox the week prior. Working the count to 2-and-2, the fans sensed the possibility of a bases-loaded walk to win the game. We all stood up, even Nanny, and waited for the pitch. On cue, Rico Brogna smacked the ball deep to right and over the fence for a grand slam walk off homer with two outs in the bottom of the ninth. It was only August in the pre-Manny/Papi Era, but Fenway shook like an earthquake. Nanny and I screamed and hugged, jumping up and down together like the 6 year-olds next to us, and joined the crowd in chanting “Rico! Rico!” over and over again until he dug himself out from his pile of teammates and took a curtain call. Probably the single greatest moment I ever experienced live in a ballpark, and I got to share it with Nanny.

1 Florida vs. FSU, Sugar Bowl- Jan. 2, 1997
The Gators’ first national championship almost never happened. After losing 24-21 to FSU in Tallahassee in a battle of unbeatens, Florida snuck into the designated National Championship game by virtue of a dominating win over Alabama in the SEC Championship game and Nebraska’s shocking upset loss to an unranked Texas squad in the inaugural Big 12 Championship game. Jake Plummer’s upstart Arizona St. team was the only other undefeated team, but were locked into a New Year’s Day Rose Bowl matchup with 1-loss Ohio State, in the pre-BCS format, which they promptly lost, opening the door for a controversy-free Sugar Bowl. With my parents having moved from Gainesville to New Orleans in 1994, the opportunity was ripe for a family trip to the Superdome. Nanny would always come visit us in late December for me and my twin sister's birthday, so she got to come along for the ride, even if she didn’t care much for college football that didn’t involve Doug Flutie. What ensued was nothing short of a complete and total manhandling of our hated rivals, crushing them by a score of 52-20 that left no doubt as to which team was the National Champ. For the first time ever, after decades of losing and half a decade of Steve Spurrier’s tantalizing genius, Danny Wuerffel, Ike Hilliard, Fred Taylor and Lawrence Wright brought a title to Gainesville. Even local boy Terry Jackson, who I played Boys Club basketball against in middle school, got into the act, rushing for over 100 yards and two TDs. The night ended with a newly-21 year-old Yours Truly, wrapped around several Bourbon St. lampposts, imploring passersby to give me a “Go Gators!” like a homeless man begging for a quarter. After 21 years of Gators, Red Sox and Patriots disappointment, and a fading memory of the Celtics’ 3 titles in the ‘80s, I needed a “Go Gators!” Over the next decade, I would get them in spades. I am one lucky sports fan.

Monday, April 26, 2010

Top Ten Sporting Events I've Attended: Part I

We’re less than a week away from the most exciting two minutes in sports (with apologies to Greg Maddux and Dave Baker), so I thought I would take this time before my upcoming trip to the Kentucky Derby to rank my Top Ten Sporting Events I’ve Attended Live. Since one of them took place in New Orleans, I’m adding one more for lagniappe. And since I pay myself by the word, we’re doing this one in two parts:

11. Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh football- November 8th, 2003
One of my first orders of business after being accepted into Carnegie Mellon’s Dramatic Writing program, after finding an apartment and scraping the fries off my salad, was to order season tickets for Pitt football. They had a fantastic home schedule, including Miami, Notre Dame and Virginia Tech. I figured I could easily make back the cost of the season package just by selling the Miami and Notre Dame tickets and still get to catch a few other games myself, which ultimately led to an awkward handoff with a Hurricane fan from West Virginia in the entryway of a chain restaurant near the Pittsburgh airport. In any case, I knew it couldn’t compare to Gator games in the Swamp, but I wanted to see how other college programs treated their football. The Panthers play at Heinz Field, where the Steelers call home, so that was kind of cool, but kind of not. I really missed the on-campus pre-game atmosphere that likely would have shut down traffic on Forbes Avenue if the stadium were there. Instead, it’s on the North Side, all the way across town and over a river. But, no matter, Virginia Tech and Heisman hopeful Kevin Jones was in town and so was my brother, so Adam and I headed down to the stadium for a night game treat. Larry Fitzgerald made an incredible touchdown grab, Kevin Jones broke off 4 TD runs (including an 80-yarder) on the way to 241 yards rushing and Rod Rutherford had the game of his life, leading Pitt on a 70 yard drive in the fourth quarter before Lousaka Polite punched in for the winning score with 47 seconds left. Final score- Pitt 31, Va. Tech, 28. Virginia Tech fans made themselves noticed with their bright orange and dark red gear, and local fans rose to the occasion as well, but if a Gator home game is a 9, this was a 5. Still, a great game to watch.

10. Holland vs. Belgium, World Cup- June 25th, 1994
Having grown up playing soccer from the age of 5 and following my brother’s footsteps as a varsity goalkeeper at Eastside High in Gainesville, I was pumped that the World Cup was coming to Orlando. Adam and I got tickets and drove two hours south to the Citrus Bowl to catch Belgium take on the Netherlands, with a star-studded team of Dennis Bergkamp, the De Boer twins, Marc Overmars and Edwin van der Sar (who wasn’t even the starter), all aged 21-25, just entering their prime. Always high drama when these two neighboring nations strap on the shinguards, and always high comedy pronouncing their names. It was David vs. Goliath, Flemish Masters vs. Dutch Masters. The atmosphere in the crowd was electric as red, yellow and black striped Belgian flags clashed against the orange jerseys of the Dutchmen, who were surprisingly tall. The Belgians managed to prevail in a huge upset, 1-0, and both teams advanced to the knockout round, with Belgium bowing to the Germans in the round of 16 and the Dutch falling to eventual champs Brazil in the quarterfinals. I’m really looking forward to this year’s Cup in South Africa, and I expect to spend some lovely summer afternoons with a frosty beverage in front of the television or at a local soccer bar, drinking in the atmosphere.

9. Lacrosse Final Four- May 27th, 2006
I have to admit, I am a Johnny-come-lately to the increasingly popular sport/culture of lax. Up until about ten years ago, my relationship with lacrosse was based solely on those awkwardly erotic Coed Naked t-shirts of the ‘80s. Lacrosse did not exist in Florida, or at least not in Gainesville. But a good friend of my brother’s, Chip, is from Maryland and played for Towson and got Adam and I interested. I figured it couldn’t be more complicated to follow than Irish hurling, which I got swept up in during a solo two-month journey across Europe in 2001, which Adam and Chip incidentally joined me on for a week or so. It was a long way to Tipperary for the Galway lads, but I remain loyal: Up Galway! In any case, Chip didn’t have to do a lot of arm-twisting to get us to make the pilgrimage to Philadelphia to check out the new Lincoln Financial Field for the college lacrosse Final Four. Truth be told, I don’t remember much about the games. UMass beat Maryland and UVA beat Syracuse and neither game was particularly close. The games were fun to watch and relatively simple enough for a novice to understand on a basic, enjoyable level. What impressed me the most were the fans. The parking lot in Philly, which is shared with the baseball stadium, was jam-packed. Kids and fathers were flipping balls to each other with lacrosse sticks all over the place, and the tailgating was phenomenal. It really is the sport of the Mid-Atlantic region and I’m glad to see that it’s spreading everywhere, even in Gainesville, where the Lady Gators are ranked in the Top 25 during their inaugural season, playing in a brand-new lacrosse facility (for which they can probably thank Urban Meyer and Billy Donovan- it’s good to be near the kings).

8. Compaq Classic- May 5, 2002
My first golf tournament and it exceeded all expectations. I’m a casual golfer. I’m not especially good, nor do I especially work on my game. I consider the green to be the hole. Once I get it up there, I could care less how many putts it takes for the ball to go underground. No one three-putts from 6 feet like I do, and I’m fine with it. Putting is for sissies, anyway. I like to watch golf on TV. I’m a fan of Tiger Woods as long as he doesn’t try to sleep with my wife. But, the idea of attending a golf tournament had never appealed to me until I got the opportunity to go to the Compaq Classic (now re-branded as the Zurich Classic) in New Orleans, while visiting my parents for Jazz Fest. Back then, the tournament was literally played in our backyard, as our house sits across a narrow water hazard from the sixth hole. What I hadn’t realized about going to a golf tournament, especially one that isn’t a major, is how close you can get to the players. All that’s between me and Phil Mickelson or Geoff Ogilvy or Stewart Cink is a thin white rope. You can hear them talking to their caddies, or to friends who are following them, or to have fans brave enough to chat them up between shots. And you can sit around the green and watch balls plop right in front of you, or you can stand at the tee box and watch them mash a drive 300 yards down the fairway. It’s really unlike any other sporting event I’ve ever been to, being so close to the action and getting to see so many different players. You can choose to follow one favorite player the whole time or you can sit at one hole and watch each player come through, or you can jump around, following someone who’s gone on a birdie run and then switching over to a legend at the end of his career for a hole or two. It’s almost like a music festival. Very, very cool. Oh, and K.J. Choi won, just his second PGA victory of what’s looking like a very good career.

7. Dice-K’s Fenway debut- April 11th, 2007
Sure, some (okay, all) of the luster surrounding Daisuke Matsuzaka’s arrival in Boston has worn off, but at the time, the hype around him and his magical gyroballs was entrancing and I gambled about a month in advance on when he would make his debut at Fenway Park against the Mariners, and got tickets for April 11th, praying for no rain, thinking this was as good a time as any to treat my then-girlfriend/now-wife to her first visit to the holy shrine of my Red Sox being. Andrea and I rented a car and drove up from New York, stopping in at my favorite, slightly out-of-the way lunch spot in Connecticut, and cruised into the city with plenty of time to take in the pre-game festivities. The excitement surrounding the ballpark breathed life into the cold, damp air that night and flashbulbs popped like fireworks, especially when fellow Japanese countryman Ichiro Suzuki stepped in to lead off the first inning. Dice-K certainly lived up to the hype that night, but the story belonged to young Seattle phenom Felix Hernandez. King Felix mowed the Sox down like a machine, taking a no-hitter into the 8th inning before J.D. Drew broke it up with a clean single, the only hit of the game in a 3-0 loss for the good guys. I was almost rooting for the no-hitter at that point (we had no chance against Felix, anyway); I’ve always wanted to see a no-hitter in person. Even though the Sox lost, it was a great trip and I was glad to be able show Andrea the majesty of Fenway Park. She cared- I think.

6. Dallas Stars at St. Louis Blues, Game 4, Conference Semi-finals- May 12th, 1999: Again, hockey is just not one of those sports that kids from Florida grow up connected to. And yet, Miami and Tampa have NHL teams. Go figure. I went to college in St. Louis, which I had previously considered to be borderline South/Midwest and did not expect it to be such a rabid hockey town. I also discovered that it occasionally snows in St. Louis in late April, so what do I know? As an undergraduate, I largely ignored the greater St. Louis area outside of our little campus cocoon in Clayton/University City, save for the occasional trip to the Galleria and Cardinals games. I didn’t start to explore different parts of the city until I stayed on for a graduate degree. That’s also when I got the opportunity to attend my first hockey game. A playoff game, no less. The Kiel Center was rocking as the Blues faced the mighty South Stars, led by former Blues hero Brett Hull, in the second round. The Blues were down in the series 2-1, but had just won Game 3 in overtime and was feeling a little momentum. I went with my professor Ann and another friend Dana, where our nosebleed seats were surprisingly not bad. The game and atmosphere was off the charts. Then it went into overtime and the roof nearly blew off. When the Blues scored in overtime, winning the game 3-2 and tying the series, the stadium shook like a volcano eruption. One of the coolest moments I’ve ever experienced- and for a team and game I barely cared about going in.

For Part II of the Top Ten, tune in tomorrow.

Friday, April 23, 2010

Tebow to Denver: Mile High Mistake

So, the mystery is solved and the NFL draftniks can take a breath: Tim Tebow is a first-round selection of the Denver Broncos. While I'm not surprised he went 25th overall, I am shocked that he was picked by Denver. The Broncos' biggest weakness last season was stopping the run, an issue they "solved" by acquiring 34 year-old Jamal Williams. While they clearly needed to try to replace Brandon Marshall's huge productivity at wide receiver (and I commend their selection of Demaryius Thomas), they had traded their way into an opportunity to take either Dan Williams or Jason Odrick, defensive tackles that would have shored up their porous run defense, with the 25th pick. Instead, they Tebowed themselves in the foot.

Denver coach Josh McDaniels has traded for two quarterbacks in his short tenure there: first, Kyle Orton in the Jay Cutler trade last year and then Brady Quinn this year. I don't happen to believe that either quarterback is going to help Denver win a Super Bowl, but McDaniels must believe that, otherwise he wouldn't have bothered acquiring them. Yes, Tebow gives the quarterback position in Denver a different dynamic, but it's not necessarily one they need. Running back Knowshon Moreno was a successful ground gainer in his rookie year, including in short yardage situations. He converted on 64.7% of third-and-short plays, and was third in the league in touchdown percentage near the goal-line, busting into the end zone 5 out of the 7 opportunities he had from inside the 3 yard line. Tebow's ability to succeed on short-yardage run plays gives the Broncos another option, but it's not worth a first round pick, especially with the payroll department taking on another first round salary with Thomas.

Thursday, April 8, 2010

The Tebow Dilemma: How He Should be Used in the NFL

Tim Tebow is a bust. Or he’s an ace. Or he’s a pair of eights, destined to make an NFL GM or coach’s stomach churn as they double their bet: infinite possibilities looming, some bad, some decent, but none of them a blackjack. No one seems to know which, but all of them have bellied up to the high-rollers table, watching as the cards get passed around. And they should. Tim Tebow is a top-53 player on any roster. Some teams, however, are trying to decide if he is a franchise quarterback, the kind that gets paid a lot of money, the kind that gets drafted in the first round. The answer to that dilemma lies in how each prospective team envisions Tebow’s ceiling. And while the NFL draft gets underway on April 22nd, NFL front office personnel would be wise to wait to call the name of The Great Tim Tebow until the next day, when the second and third rounds take place. And he should be drafted not as The Franchise and not as The Project, but as a hybrid alternative: third down quarterback.

Conventional wisdom and draftniks say Tebow is not a first-rounder, and we all know why: his throwing motion is suspect and he’s not used to playing in a pro-style offense. Still, it’s certainly possible that a team with an anemic and hopeless offense like Cleveland, Buffalo or St. Louis might try to rebuild their offensive scheme to fit Tebow’s strengths and put him at the helm, but it’s likely that at least one of the Big Two of Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen would be available to one of those teams. Even if a team were to prefer Tebow over the more traditionally-styled Colt McCoy as the third best QB, there are too many other surer bets out there in the first round, where the risk and the reward tend to be as tight as Tony Romo’s collar in a playoff game.

And yet there is scuttlebutt that a team toward the end of the first round might be able to afford to roll the dice on the two-time BCS champ. Successful, well-run organizations like the Patriots and Steelers bristle at having to take the time to teach young players how to be a winner. Tebow comes pre-programmed in that department, but really, what team can pass on plugging a hole to take on an extra quarterback? And if you’re drafting toward the end of the first round, that means that you’re a contender, and no coach or GM of a contending team in their right mind would waste a first round pick on a position that is obviously not an issue (with the exception of Arizona, who is likely loath to go all in on another first round QB while Matt Leinart is still on the roster). Then there’s the Savior Theory, hitherto only applied to the Jaguars, who may, in a desperate attempt to fill seats, pluck the local boy hero to appeal to their Bible Belt fan base. More on the Jags later.

Predicting where Tebow will land is nothing more than a semi-educated guess, because it depends on the whim/expertise of the shot-callers in the NFL, some of whom are shrewd evaluators of talent and some of whom are hardheaded ex-jocks who go with their beer gut. There will be those who believe Tebow can one day (possibly soon) be a successful, starting quarterback in the NFL. There are others who value his leadership qualities and work ethic and believe that he can be someone they can trust if their first stringer goes down for a short period of time. And there are those who want to mold Tebow into their ideal player, no matter how little experience he may have at whatever position they think he can play. Yes, he’s built like a fullback, but does anyone really think that he can be an effective blocker? Child, please.

Let’s assume for a moment that Tebow is human, and whatever mechanical changes he’s made as a quarterback in the last six weeks would disappear in the 0.7 seconds it takes for Dwight Freeney to descend upon him in the pocket like an avalanche. And despite his 2,947 career rushing yards as a Gator, his 4.72 time in the 40 isn’t going to save him from an end like Freeney or any middle linebacker chasing him to the outside. However, the one thing I would want Tebow to do is take the snap on third or fourth and short.

From the moment Tebow stepped on the field as a true freshman man-child until his jarring, concussion-inducing hit against Kentucky as a senior, Tebow successfully rushed on third and short (here defined as one or two yards) 76.1% of the time- and didn’t turn the ball over once. The Miami Dolphins were second in the league last year in third and short conversion rate at 56.9%. From 2008 until the hit in 2009 (17 games), with the target of a Heisman Trophy on his back, he maintained an even-keel, to the tune of 76.2%. As a freshman in 2006, when he was used largely as a third down quarterback, replacing the unimposing Chris Leak at key moments, he went 8-for-10 on third and short runs, plus another 3-for-3 while running on fourth-and-short. And inside the three-yard line with the defense stuffing the box like Election Day in Iran? Five rushing touchdowns in five attempts. The Buffalo Bills had zero rushing touchdowns inside the 3 last year.

Here’s where we find out if the Jaguars have truly fallen under the spell of the Glory of the Coming of the Tebow: Jacksonville led the league in the third and short conversion last season. Maurice Jones-Drew busted through at a 76.0% clip (on 25 attempts- the most in the league), but more than that, the Jags don’t have to look very far to realize that they already have Tim Tebow: David Garrard was 10-for-10 on third and short last season. No other QB cracked the top 20 in third and short conversion rate. Granted, Garrard is 32 and hasn’t delighted Jacksonville fans since high school the way Tebow has, but Garrard was not the Jaguars’ problem last year. Their receiving corps wasn’t exactly drawing double teams and their defense was awful. At best, Tebow maintains the status quo in Jacksonville, and that’s not worth a first or second round pick, unless they plan to shore up their secondary through a trade or free agency. What they really need on offense is Brandon Marshall, not Tim Tebow.

So, where does it make sense for Tebow to go? I’ve broken it down into two categories: Hail Mary and Touchdown Jesus.

Hail Mary: Our Offense Is a Disgrace, Our Team Hasn’t Won in Years (If Ever) and We Need Divine Intervention (Chance of Success=Heaving a Ball 50 Yards Through a Defense That Knows It’s Coming)

Cleveland- Right now, it seems that Holmgren is betting that the wind off Lake Erie will push Jake Delhomme’s passes away from the seemingly magnetic forces of the opposing team. If it lands in an eligible Browns receiver’s hands, Holmgren does a dance of joy. If it’s caught by the intended receiver, Holmgren pulls a Pat Riley and installs himself as head coach immediately. Either way, Tebow doesn’t have the arm Holmgren uses for his system, so I don’t see the Browns building their offense around him. And they have so many other problems, it would be foolish to take a backup/third down QB in the first two rounds. Wait a minute, did I say foolish? Count the Browns in! Chance of Browns selecting Tebow: 20%

Oakland- How much longer can the Raiders cling to JaMarcus Russell? How much longer can JaMarcus Russell cling to the title of king of the burgers? Raider Nation would love the hard-nosed Tebow, but he’s not solving their problems, which run deeper than Lake Tahoe. However, anytime Al Davis is calling the shots, anything can happen. I actually make sure my cell phone is on during the draft every year just in case he calls me to tell me I’m the newest Raider. Chance of the Raiders selecting Tebow: 25%. Chance of the Raiders selecting Weiner: 2%

Buffalo- This scenario scares me the most, because they have the most glaring need at QB and the thought of Tebow facing Rex Ryan and Bill Belichick defenses four times during his rookie season makes me feel sorry for Tebow’s parents, who (as we know from the famous Super Bowl ad) overcame much adversity just to bring little Timmy into the world, only to watch him get crushed so young. Still, word is that Jim Kelly is hot for Tebow. Chance of the Bills selecting Tebow: 40%

St. Louis- What if the Rams take the best player in the draft instead of the best quarterback? They pass on Sam Bradford, take Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy to anchor their pathetic defense and then loop around to take Tebow at the top of the second round. Or trade down a few spots to shore up their secondary with Eric Berry or Joe Haden and collect extra picks along the way. Turn on the Steven Jackson show while Tebow warms into his role as game-manager and team leader. Nah, too logical. Good luck, sweet St. Lou. If Bradford doesn’t work out, you’ll still have the best roast beef sandwich in the country. Chance of the Rams selecting Tebow: 5%


Touchdown Jesus: We’re a Pretty Good, Contending Team, but it Sure Would Be Nice to Have Some Bruiser With Half an Arm Pick Up a Few Short Yardage Plays For Us to Get Us Over The Hump (And Save Money on Those Silly Punters & Kickers)

New England- The Patriots were a surprising 11th in the league last year on third-and-short conversions, given that Tom Brady couldn’t run past a pregnant Gisele any more than a line of scrimmage. Laurence Maroney was 9-for-12, but his inability to hold onto the football makes him a dead man walking on Belichick’s roster. I don’t think Belichick’s quite reached the point where he’s crazy enough to turn Tebow into a tight end, but I do think he’d love to extend Brady’s career by substituting Tebow on short yardage plays. Chance of the Patriots selecting Tebow: 30%

San Diego- Philip Rivers is the starter, no question, so there should be no ego issue bringing in a young buck like Tebow to beef up their 30th ranked third-and-short rate (and 26th ranked touchdown rate inside the three yard line). With the lackluster LT gone, those carries will fall to the even smaller Sproles, and the Chargers could certainly use a bigger option, who can also find Antonio Gates should Tebow’s rushing antics become too predictable (TT was 6-for-10 passing inside the three yard line in his career, with no interceptions). Chance of the Chargers taking Tebow- 20%

These are the only teams that make sense in terms of taking Tebow in the first two rounds. In the unlikely event that he slips to the third round (the hype-meter on Tebow is rising by the day), there are plenty of other teams that could use him. Teams like the Texans, Bengals, Dolphins and Packers would be better served filling bigger needs than spending on a luxury item such as Tebow, but all it takes is one riverboat gambler to make him a top-10 pick. And that is too much to bet on a third-down QB with a recent concussion.