The Tebow Dilemma: How He Should be Used in the NFL

Tim Tebow is a bust. Or he’s an ace. Or he’s a pair of eights, destined to make an NFL GM or coach’s stomach churn as they double their bet: infinite possibilities looming, some bad, some decent, but none of them a blackjack. No one seems to know which, but all of them have bellied up to the high-rollers table, watching as the cards get passed around. And they should. Tim Tebow is a top-53 player on any roster. Some teams, however, are trying to decide if he is a franchise quarterback, the kind that gets paid a lot of money, the kind that gets drafted in the first round. The answer to that dilemma lies in how each prospective team envisions Tebow’s ceiling. And while the NFL draft gets underway on April 22nd, NFL front office personnel would be wise to wait to call the name of The Great Tim Tebow until the next day, when the second and third rounds take place. And he should be drafted not as The Franchise and not as The Project, but as a hybrid alternative: third down quarterback.

Conventional wisdom and draftniks say Tebow is not a first-rounder, and we all know why: his throwing motion is suspect and he’s not used to playing in a pro-style offense. Still, it’s certainly possible that a team with an anemic and hopeless offense like Cleveland, Buffalo or St. Louis might try to rebuild their offensive scheme to fit Tebow’s strengths and put him at the helm, but it’s likely that at least one of the Big Two of Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen would be available to one of those teams. Even if a team were to prefer Tebow over the more traditionally-styled Colt McCoy as the third best QB, there are too many other surer bets out there in the first round, where the risk and the reward tend to be as tight as Tony Romo’s collar in a playoff game.

And yet there is scuttlebutt that a team toward the end of the first round might be able to afford to roll the dice on the two-time BCS champ. Successful, well-run organizations like the Patriots and Steelers bristle at having to take the time to teach young players how to be a winner. Tebow comes pre-programmed in that department, but really, what team can pass on plugging a hole to take on an extra quarterback? And if you’re drafting toward the end of the first round, that means that you’re a contender, and no coach or GM of a contending team in their right mind would waste a first round pick on a position that is obviously not an issue (with the exception of Arizona, who is likely loath to go all in on another first round QB while Matt Leinart is still on the roster). Then there’s the Savior Theory, hitherto only applied to the Jaguars, who may, in a desperate attempt to fill seats, pluck the local boy hero to appeal to their Bible Belt fan base. More on the Jags later.

Predicting where Tebow will land is nothing more than a semi-educated guess, because it depends on the whim/expertise of the shot-callers in the NFL, some of whom are shrewd evaluators of talent and some of whom are hardheaded ex-jocks who go with their beer gut. There will be those who believe Tebow can one day (possibly soon) be a successful, starting quarterback in the NFL. There are others who value his leadership qualities and work ethic and believe that he can be someone they can trust if their first stringer goes down for a short period of time. And there are those who want to mold Tebow into their ideal player, no matter how little experience he may have at whatever position they think he can play. Yes, he’s built like a fullback, but does anyone really think that he can be an effective blocker? Child, please.

Let’s assume for a moment that Tebow is human, and whatever mechanical changes he’s made as a quarterback in the last six weeks would disappear in the 0.7 seconds it takes for Dwight Freeney to descend upon him in the pocket like an avalanche. And despite his 2,947 career rushing yards as a Gator, his 4.72 time in the 40 isn’t going to save him from an end like Freeney or any middle linebacker chasing him to the outside. However, the one thing I would want Tebow to do is take the snap on third or fourth and short.

From the moment Tebow stepped on the field as a true freshman man-child until his jarring, concussion-inducing hit against Kentucky as a senior, Tebow successfully rushed on third and short (here defined as one or two yards) 76.1% of the time- and didn’t turn the ball over once. The Miami Dolphins were second in the league last year in third and short conversion rate at 56.9%. From 2008 until the hit in 2009 (17 games), with the target of a Heisman Trophy on his back, he maintained an even-keel, to the tune of 76.2%. As a freshman in 2006, when he was used largely as a third down quarterback, replacing the unimposing Chris Leak at key moments, he went 8-for-10 on third and short runs, plus another 3-for-3 while running on fourth-and-short. And inside the three-yard line with the defense stuffing the box like Election Day in Iran? Five rushing touchdowns in five attempts. The Buffalo Bills had zero rushing touchdowns inside the 3 last year.

Here’s where we find out if the Jaguars have truly fallen under the spell of the Glory of the Coming of the Tebow: Jacksonville led the league in the third and short conversion last season. Maurice Jones-Drew busted through at a 76.0% clip (on 25 attempts- the most in the league), but more than that, the Jags don’t have to look very far to realize that they already have Tim Tebow: David Garrard was 10-for-10 on third and short last season. No other QB cracked the top 20 in third and short conversion rate. Granted, Garrard is 32 and hasn’t delighted Jacksonville fans since high school the way Tebow has, but Garrard was not the Jaguars’ problem last year. Their receiving corps wasn’t exactly drawing double teams and their defense was awful. At best, Tebow maintains the status quo in Jacksonville, and that’s not worth a first or second round pick, unless they plan to shore up their secondary through a trade or free agency. What they really need on offense is Brandon Marshall, not Tim Tebow.

So, where does it make sense for Tebow to go? I’ve broken it down into two categories: Hail Mary and Touchdown Jesus.

Hail Mary: Our Offense Is a Disgrace, Our Team Hasn’t Won in Years (If Ever) and We Need Divine Intervention (Chance of Success=Heaving a Ball 50 Yards Through a Defense That Knows It’s Coming)

Cleveland- Right now, it seems that Holmgren is betting that the wind off Lake Erie will push Jake Delhomme’s passes away from the seemingly magnetic forces of the opposing team. If it lands in an eligible Browns receiver’s hands, Holmgren does a dance of joy. If it’s caught by the intended receiver, Holmgren pulls a Pat Riley and installs himself as head coach immediately. Either way, Tebow doesn’t have the arm Holmgren uses for his system, so I don’t see the Browns building their offense around him. And they have so many other problems, it would be foolish to take a backup/third down QB in the first two rounds. Wait a minute, did I say foolish? Count the Browns in! Chance of Browns selecting Tebow: 20%

Oakland- How much longer can the Raiders cling to JaMarcus Russell? How much longer can JaMarcus Russell cling to the title of king of the burgers? Raider Nation would love the hard-nosed Tebow, but he’s not solving their problems, which run deeper than Lake Tahoe. However, anytime Al Davis is calling the shots, anything can happen. I actually make sure my cell phone is on during the draft every year just in case he calls me to tell me I’m the newest Raider. Chance of the Raiders selecting Tebow: 25%. Chance of the Raiders selecting Weiner: 2%

Buffalo- This scenario scares me the most, because they have the most glaring need at QB and the thought of Tebow facing Rex Ryan and Bill Belichick defenses four times during his rookie season makes me feel sorry for Tebow’s parents, who (as we know from the famous Super Bowl ad) overcame much adversity just to bring little Timmy into the world, only to watch him get crushed so young. Still, word is that Jim Kelly is hot for Tebow. Chance of the Bills selecting Tebow: 40%

St. Louis- What if the Rams take the best player in the draft instead of the best quarterback? They pass on Sam Bradford, take Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy to anchor their pathetic defense and then loop around to take Tebow at the top of the second round. Or trade down a few spots to shore up their secondary with Eric Berry or Joe Haden and collect extra picks along the way. Turn on the Steven Jackson show while Tebow warms into his role as game-manager and team leader. Nah, too logical. Good luck, sweet St. Lou. If Bradford doesn’t work out, you’ll still have the best roast beef sandwich in the country. Chance of the Rams selecting Tebow: 5%


Touchdown Jesus: We’re a Pretty Good, Contending Team, but it Sure Would Be Nice to Have Some Bruiser With Half an Arm Pick Up a Few Short Yardage Plays For Us to Get Us Over The Hump (And Save Money on Those Silly Punters & Kickers)

New England- The Patriots were a surprising 11th in the league last year on third-and-short conversions, given that Tom Brady couldn’t run past a pregnant Gisele any more than a line of scrimmage. Laurence Maroney was 9-for-12, but his inability to hold onto the football makes him a dead man walking on Belichick’s roster. I don’t think Belichick’s quite reached the point where he’s crazy enough to turn Tebow into a tight end, but I do think he’d love to extend Brady’s career by substituting Tebow on short yardage plays. Chance of the Patriots selecting Tebow: 30%

San Diego- Philip Rivers is the starter, no question, so there should be no ego issue bringing in a young buck like Tebow to beef up their 30th ranked third-and-short rate (and 26th ranked touchdown rate inside the three yard line). With the lackluster LT gone, those carries will fall to the even smaller Sproles, and the Chargers could certainly use a bigger option, who can also find Antonio Gates should Tebow’s rushing antics become too predictable (TT was 6-for-10 passing inside the three yard line in his career, with no interceptions). Chance of the Chargers taking Tebow- 20%

These are the only teams that make sense in terms of taking Tebow in the first two rounds. In the unlikely event that he slips to the third round (the hype-meter on Tebow is rising by the day), there are plenty of other teams that could use him. Teams like the Texans, Bengals, Dolphins and Packers would be better served filling bigger needs than spending on a luxury item such as Tebow, but all it takes is one riverboat gambler to make him a top-10 pick. And that is too much to bet on a third-down QB with a recent concussion.