As a kid, we used to wait until St Paddy's Day to start discussing our Derby rankings. But I am a married man of 13 wonderful years and when my wife tells me that all she wants for Valentine's Day is my Derby Half Dozen, I aims to please. So open this box of chocolates carefully and don't blame me if you get the one with the coconut. It tastes even sweeter because Derby tickets and accommodations were just procured last week and my mind is already in Louisville. Pity that my body is still in NYC, but my mind and body have a long history of spending quality time apart.
So let's get this kicked off with a Valentine's Day Derby Half-Dozen for the Average Goof.
1) Creative Cause - If you've been to the track with me, you will know that I am a sucker for Giant's Causeway colts. We will know more after the San Vicente, but I was oh so pleased with his 2 year old campaign. I was one of those who thought his BC Juvenile 3rd was a good thing. I like my Derby horse peaking in his 3 year old year. Excited to see him run this weekend.
2) El Padrino - Let's just get it out of the way, Pletcher is loaded again this year. Loaded. And I think this is the best one in his barn. Pulpit Colt, dam sired by Giant's Causeway...hard not to like. And I get the sense he has the most bottom of all the Pletcher colts. Impeccable breeding will make him a huge factor on the Derby trail. As a side note, if folks are highly impressed with Algorithm beating Hansen, wait til Take Charge Indy, who El Padrino ran right by, runs in his next race. He might make that January 29 Allowance win look better and better.
3) Union Rags - Matz has a big horse and a great chance this spring. So glad to see the Fountain of Youth will see Union Rags meet Algorithm. Avoiding other good horses in prep races seems to be the strategy of most trainers, so kudos to Matz and Pletcher. Union Rags is a big, impressive and super athletic horse. I was not as impressed with his BC Juvenile as some but this horse could easily be number one of any list. I am NOT worried about workouts in February and expect to see a big spring from this horse.
4) Sabercat - I thought long and hard about how I could rank this horse higher than Algorithm right now with his speed figures not near that of Algorithm. Turn of foot, turn of foot, turn of foot that launches him into a big kick. That is what I would give my Derby horse if I could build one. We shall see what he has in the San Felipe. I think he has a lot.
5) Algorithm - What is not to like about this Bernardini colt? He put Hansen away easily, something Union Rags could not do, and has the pedigree to go the distance. There is something about his running style that looks more like a 12, 12, 12 horse that could work very well in the Belmont but I just haven't yet seen the turn of foot of the horses I ranked above him to think he can beat them in Louisville. Lots of time to change my mind.
6) Alpha - Kieran Mclaughlin is not prepping this horse how I like to see a 3 year old build bottom. I would like to see him and Hansen go at each other. What I do like about Alpha is his high cruising speed. And the fact that I think he can get a lot better and he grows into that frame of his. Would have liked to see him in the gate a little longer last race as this horse seems to not oike being manhandled by the starters, which could be trouble in a 20 horse field at Churchill. Lots of upside and his breeding says he can run forever. He will be fun to watch.
If you check under the candy wrappers, you will see a Maiden Special Weight from this past weekend that featured an unbelievable stretch run by Street Life, Street Sense's boy. When he changed leads, he was a blur in the stretch. Not sure the quality of his rivals, but any horse in February that makes you say, "Did he just do that?" ...let's keep him on our radar.
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