BREEDERS CUP PICKS for the AVERAGE GOOF by Guest Blogger James McManus

So let us recap this day.  Another great Friday at the Breeders Cup.  So good to see Bill Mott take another Distaff with the brilliant ROYAL DELTA.  Of the 6 races today, we had 2 winners, 2 second place finishers and a 5th and a 6th.  If you were smart you made enough money for dinner and drinks but it was not the killing it could have been.  Yes, I'm looking at you NAHRAIN.  How did you let a 27-1 shot run by you?  And STOPSHOPPINGMARIA was almost home, but the wire is the wire and a loss is a loss.  Any day spent winning enough money to cover drinks at the track and dinner in the evening is a good day.  If today was blended scotch, tomorrow is single malt so let's get straight to Saturday and my...

BREEDERS CUP PICKS for the AVERAGE GOOF
SATURDAY'S CARD WINNERS

There is a saying in Louisville at Derby time that no matter what the weather has been like all spring, on Derby Day it is always 75 and sunny.
I have walked the tunnel at Gate 3 that separates wheat from drunk on Derby Day and can assure you that no matter what the temperature is, the infield is always .18 and runny.  If you have not experienced the infield on Derby Day, imagine all of the grass you could ever want dotted with porta potties and mint juleps.  The infield is a town unto itself.  There is a general store for ice and other items that might keep you alive, general camaraderie which usually entails someone you have never met offering you a liquor that tastes vaguely like bourbon and a general sense that for one day of the year, anything goes.  Uncle Pat loved the infield and Uncle Pat loved Derby Day.  He looked at it as 80,000 average goofs losing money and feeling good about it.  I will save the Indian Charlie story for another time as I am trying to see if I can actually tell it 1 million times orally before I lay it down in print.  Suffice to say, Uncle Pat thought the average goof would be on Favorite Trick that Derby Day in 98 and the only thing that the Donora crew knew for sure was that Pat Day would give the Trick a bad ride and that one of Baffert's two studs would be there to pick up the pieces.  Trainer Bob Baffert had won the Derby the previous year with Silver Charm and was loaded in 98 with both Indian Charlie and Real Quiet.  It was a tough call between the two and our tent was split down the middle. Our tent was also littered with human wreckage that could not have distinguished a horse from a human due to the unending kindness of Kentucky strangers, but those of us standing, well leaning, laid our cookies on one of the two Baffert horses.  Real Quiet won the Derby and Indian Charlie finished 3rd setting off a series of events that have become Donora's version of The Scottish Play.  Uncle Pat had the winner, the triple, the super and maybe he slept with Elizabeth Taylor that night also...it was that good.  I bring this up because Indian Charlie's boy, Uncle Mo, runs today in the Classic at Churchill Downs on a autumn afternoon sent to us in a postcard and he is just the type of horse Uncle Pat loved.  His breeding is impeccable, his style is that of a front runner or stalker and he just won a race with a Beyer Speed Figure higher than the average IQ.  And...he has the same first name as Uncle Pat.  But there is one Mo angle that would give Uncle Pat some pause, he liked horses who had won at the distance they are running.  This will not only be Uncle Mo's first try at 10 furlongs, he has never won past 8 1/2F and that was last year before all of the health problems of this year.  And, he has never faced competition like he will today in the Classic. And Flat Out is 5 years old and seasoned.  And Havre de Grace is the best horse in America this year.  And So You Think gives Coolmore the burly beast of a chance to take down its first Classic.  And Stay Thirsty has won at this distance and cannot like it that all of the fillies line up for his stable mate.  And To Honor and Serve just won the PA Derby and Bill Mott would not run him here unless he had a shot.  And, and, and...  WWUPD? 

BREEDERS CUP PICKS for the AVERAGE GOOF
SATURDAY'S CARD WINNERS

MARATHON (14f) 1:20PM POST TIME
This race last year gave us a fist fight after the race between jockeys Cavin Borel and Javier Castellano.  Good to get the blood flowing.  This is a quirky distance as 14 furlongs is not a commonly run distance in horse racing.  As with 7 furlong races, I like horses who have won at this odd distance such as last year's winner ELDAAFER.  I love AP INDY colts and I see no reason why ELDAAFER cannot repeat.  And at 10-1 ML, the #10 ELDAAFER will be a lovely start to the day...almost like an ice cold Penn Pilsner/Penn Dark right on top of a hangover.

JUVENILE TURF (8f) 2:02PM POST TIME
Wide open race and unless you travel to Europe to watch the ponies, most Americans have not seen the majority of this field compete.  I like the Irish bred #12 LUCKY CHAPPY off of 2 wins across the pond and a 3rd place effort at Keeneland that was better than it looked.  I don't like the post but I'm hoping the pace is hot and LUCKY CHAPPY is there at the end.  This colt is also ML 10-1.  Open these oysters gently because I'm placing pearls in there.

SPRINT (6f) 2:37PM POST TIME
Other than the Classic, the sprint is always my favorite race of the day.  I like pure speed and at 6 furlongs, there is little strategy among these colts.  The gate opens and the jockeys turn them loose to see who is fastest.  Last year BIG DRAMA got the drop on his competitors at the gate and led them all the way around.  Could it happen again?  Sure it could.  But I don't like BIG DRAMA'S campaign this year.  Too much time off before what was really a workout at Calder in September.  I will take a horse who has been running and competing all year long.  Nick Zito did a marvelous training job with JACKSON BEND to turn him from a router into one of the best sprinters in the country this year.  Yes, he lost to UNCLE MO in the Kelso, but most horses would have and he got shuffled back early.  I saw JACKSON BEND run twice at Saratoga this year and though small in stature, this colt gives everything he has.  I think his best is good enough today.  Take #5 JACKSON BEND to win with AIKENITE closing late on him.

DIRT MILE (8f) 4:01PM POST TIME
What a field!  SHACKLEFORD won a little race called the Preakness.  THE FACTOR might be the most talented horse in Baffert's barn. (Hello 1 hole again at CD.  Did Baffert badmouth blue grass in another life?)  WILBURN has won 3 in a row.  CALEB'S POSSE won the King's Bishop over UNCLE MO and TRAPPE SHOT has turned in possibly the best performance of the year in the True North on Belmont Saturday.  And I don't throw IRREFUTABLE out.  I like the fact that TRAPPE SHOT can use the 9 hole to see how things are setting up and decide how far off the pace he wants to be.  This is probably SHACKLEFORD's best distance even though he won a triple crown race this year.  I see SHACKLEFORD on the lead with THE FACTOR and as SHACKLEFORD puts THE FACTOR away, TRAPPE SHOT and CALEB'S POSSE are gunning for him.  At the wire, by a desperate nose, I see the #9, TRAPPE SHOT getting up for the win.

TURF (12f) 4:45PM POST TIME
This race has been moved out of its traditional penultimate slot partly to give GOLDLIKOVA the spotlight she deserves and partly because the American horses, well, there just aren't any with a real shot in this race.  Where are you WINCHESTER? I guess this proves that the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland in 10 was more a prep for this race in 11 than a prep for the Derby in 10 as STATELY VICTOR and BRILLIANT SPEED both ran in the 10 Bluegrass Stakes.  I'm going to take a chance with the Irish bred #1 ST. NICHOLAS ABBEY for trainer Aidan O'Brien.  He is 5 for 10 lifetime and I like post 1 in such a long race.  I hope he skims the rail and can find a little space turning for home.

JUVENILE (8 1/2f) 5:25PM POST TIME
#10 UNION RAGS He looks like this year's UNCLE MO.  Watch his win the Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont.  That is what a great racehorse is supposed to look like.  Only, they almost never look like that in their 2 year old year.  #10 UNION RAGS.  Bet him, take what they give you and be happy just to watch him run.

MILE (8f) 6:07PM POST TIME
What can I add to everything that has already been said about GOLDLIKOVA?  I saw her accelerate right in front of me last year and she took my breath away.  Maybe even more impressive is that GIO PONTI ran a great race last year to finish second.  I don't know what else he could have done and he was still desperately beaten.  So you're going to bet her, Jimmy?  Nope.  So you're going for GIO PONTI?  As much as it pains me, I'm not going for either.  #3 COURAGEOUS CAT almost got GOLDLIKOVA in 09 and is in great form this year.  The CAT can sit chilly behind the blistering pace that SYDNEY'S CANDY will set and pounce quickly at the top of the stretch to hold off the two great horses, GIO PONTI and GOLDLIKOVA.  On a personal note, may I say that those may be real tears at the end of this race as GIO PONTI has given me so many thrills in person and all I can give back to him is to say that I have known I was in the presence of greatness every time I strained my neck to get a look at him.  If this is his last, Godspeed in the breeding shed, GIO PONTI, I cannot wait to see your colts and fillies run.

CLASSIC (10f) 7:30PM POST TIME
I am not abstaining on the big race, but I am warning you that I have nothing but my heart up my sleeve with this pick.  I know all of the arguments against him and I even agree with some of them.  HAVRE DE GRACE and FLAT OUT are monsters who have every right to repeat what they did in the Woodward and see if the extra furlong can get FLAT OUT there.  SO YOU THINK is seasoned and a proven winner.  GAME ON DUDE is tenacious with the lead.  And UNCLE MO had a liver ailment and 7 & 8 furlong races do not prepare a horse for this distance and blah blah blah.  Well, everyone and his reasons can all go to hell.  Because I saw this horse run at Saratoga as a 2 year old and on that day he became my horse and he is still my horse.  I like everything about him.  He is a big, good looking horse who you just cannot take your eyes off of.  And he likes the lead and he likes to flash his speed and he likes to break your heart by getting sick and not letting you know if he is ok.  And he likes to come back to the winner's circle after the Kelso at Belmont and look like he could go another mile and breathe as if he would not blow out a match as you look at a horse whose muscles seem to have muscles.  And I will be watching him accelerate tomorrow and I think he's going to win.  My pick in the 2011 Classic at Churchill Downs is the #12, UNCLE MO because I believe that the blood of INDIAN CHARLIE always deserved to pass under the finish line at Churchill Downs as a winner and I believe that part of being Irish is knowing the world is going to break your heart if you put it out there, but what else is a heart for?  And I believe that UNCLE MO is the best horse in this race.  Take your average goof and he allows his heart to get in the way of his head.  To that, Uncle Pat, I say SUNDAY SILENCE.  GO MO GO!

-James McManus