Horse Race Betting Lineage and Breeders Cup Picks by Guest Blogger James McManus

The DoublePlay Sports Blog is back! After a mysterious hiatus, we have a whole series in the works starting next week, but in the meantime, take in the delightful stylings of guest blogger James McManus, who led me Virgil-like into the depths of the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby, chronicled extensively starting here. Without further ado...

I spent a lot of time as a boy at the Friendly Tavern in Donora watching the horse races on TV. Two truisms were uttered each year as the Belmont Stakes (always run a week or two before Father's Day) played above us.
"Father's Day in this town is going to be a clusterf**k."
"If you're going to lose a route race, do it with a closer who comes late."
One was said because young colts like to make nice nice with fillies and leave the matter of staying power in doubt. The other had to do with handicapping horse races. I knew who my folks were, so I concentrated on the races. A route race is one where the horses travel around more than one turn into the stretch. My Uncle Patrick always thought that as with most things in life, the crowd had it wrong. "Take your average goof lays brick for a living" was how many of his theories on life began. Take your average goof and he'll pay some jackass to tar his roof when all you need is tar and a chicken ladder. Take your average goof who thinks his wife is faithful and I'll be over his place while he's spouting off. Take your average goof who votes an actor into the White House and wonders how he lies so good. But Uncle Patrick saved a special litany of take your average goof for those who thought they could pick the horses better than he could.

He would pick me up from school on his way down to Waterford and for the one hour ride, he filled me with Take your average goofs about how not to pick the horses.
Take your average goof...
he bets on jockeys, the horse don't ride the jockey, Jimmy.
he loves him a good closer. Closers are lazy horses who run past tired ones who tried hard.
he thinks time is important, but any crazy jockey can throw the time of a race out of whack.
he don't know that 87% of races are won by horses on or near the lead.
he thinks a horse on the lead don't win is a quitter. I say any horse didn't win, quit.

On those car rides as his dirty hands barely touched the steering wheel and he punctuated every Take your average goof by pointing at someone who was NOT straight ahead where the other cars were and I sensed that he was living the life of a jockey in his old Buick as we whisked toward the track to take money from the average goof by bobbing and weaving toward his finish line, which was the betting window.

Uncle Pat had three hard and fast rules when it came to betting the horses.
1. Make them beat you. Get you a dancer out of the gate and make them all come and beat you. Even if you lose being in the lead gets the old heart pumping and a pumping heart will put lead in your pencil. (That one would escape me for a long while, until I couldn't escape it and thought about it even more than what Uncle Pat was going to tell me about the average goof.)
2. Horses that win continue to win. Most a these goofs whisper to me that the 2 horse is due cause he ain't won in 6 races. I say, he's due to lose AGAIN.
3. Class will always tell. Most a these goofs got lousy character cause their mama had bad character and whoever they think their daddy was had bad character. Bet a well bred horse. Boy is Father's day going to be a cluster around here.

For years I have kept Uncle Pat's holy trinity in mind as I dope the form. I like well bred horses who tend to run on the lead and if they won last time out I wager that they will continue to win. Uncle Pat would be proud that his philosophy has served me well through the years. I have not been the average goof at the window and some would even say, "He knows what he's doing." That year at the Friendly Tavern, Uncle Pat bet Sunday Silence to win the Belmont and give him a Triple Crown to talk about for months. It had been 11 years since Seattle Slew and as Uncle Pat was fond of saying, Slew's don't come along every day but this Silence got it all...he can stalk, good turn of foot and he won't never let that Easy Goer go by him. As they came down the stretch of the Belmont, Easy Goer blew by Sunday Silence and ruined Uncle Pat's night. He held his two dollar win ticket on Sunday Silence in the air like communion for a long long time. When he finally brought it down, he gave it to me and told me to hold the ticket and only throw it away when another horse wins the triple crown. I still have the ticket and I have had it with me through Silver Charm and Real Quiet and Smarty Jones and and and...I will hold it until the another Slew comes along.

But I am going to "break form" and do something Uncle Pat would never do and would not approve of...The Breeders Cup will be run Friday and Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville and although it's been years since I attended a BC with Uncle Patrick under the Twin Spires of the Downs, I remember his admonition like it was yesterday. As we walked the grounds doping the form and Uncle Pat sipped on flask whiskey, he met a friend from Donora. The friend was delighted to see Uncle Pat because as he told it, "Every horse I picked today, they should give the jockey a sandwich and a flashlight so he don't get lost coming home in the dark." He was sure that a winner was hiding in Uncle Pat's form and that a 9-1 shot from Pat would be just the bolt of lightning he needed to turn his day around. Uncle Pat shared his whiskey but not his picks. When the man walked away muttering to himself, I asked Uncle Pat why he was so stingy. "Jimmy, the average goof starts playing your horses, it's like kissing your sister." I didn't know what that meant then and I still don't. I like to think that rather than Uncle Pat being stingy, he thought telling someone else popped the magic balloon.

I am not so superstitious and in the sincere hope of helping the average goof, I am going to share my plays over the next couple of days. All of these picks work better when in Louisville, while downing a bourbon and munching on fried pickles, but if you cannot see the animals accelerate live...flip on your TV and see if I learned anything from Uncle Pat.

BREEDERS CUP PICKS for the AVERAGE GOOF
FRIDAY"S CARD WINNERS

JUVENILE SPRINT 4:10PM POST TIME
This is the 1st year for the Juvenile Sprint. Do we need a Juvenile Sprint? I don't know, but I've never met a BC race I didn't like as I saw it run. Bet the #6, SECRET CIRCLE and get your day started off with a chalk winner.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF 4:50 POST TIME
All the money will be on the #2, ELUSIVE KATE, who has been running extremely well in Europe. But keep in mind, a 2 year old filly has never shipped over and won this race. I'm going after the #4, STOPSHOPPINGMARIA.

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT (7F) 5:30 POST TIME
This will be our BEST BET of the 2 days. TURBULENT DESCENT is 6 for 8 lifetime and her 2 losses were to IT"S TRICKY and ZAZU. I saw this horse run in The Test at Saratoga this summer and turned to my friend after she demolished the field with my jaw dropped. I doubt David Flores will have to even show her the whip. She wins by 5.

JUVENILE FILLIES (8 1/2F) 6:10 POST TIME
I'm going after a shot in this race because I am not sold on #5 or #9. The #4 MISS NETTA broke her maiden at Saratoga in late August and then ran a respectable 3rd behind MY MISS AURELIA and STOPSHOPPINGMARIA in the Frizette. The daughter of STREET SENSE should like the extra ground and I'm thinking she comes up big and for a nice price as her ML is 15-1.

FILLY AND MARE TURF (11F) 6:50 POST TIME
#5, NAHRAIN can only improve after a monster race in a Group 1 where she nosed out ANNOUNCE. I look for the same two horses to be powering toward the line late and NAHRAIN to edge ANNOUNCE again.

DISTAFF (LADIES CLASSIC, 9F) 7:30 POST TIME
Even with HAVRE DE GRACE running in the Classic and UNRIVALED BELLE retired and BLIND LUCK not running, this race still has a ton of star power. The Kentucky Oaks winner, PLUM PRETTY, the Alabama winner, ROYAL DELTA and the Coaching Club American Oaks winner, IT"S TRICKY have dueled against each other more than once. I don't believe that trainer Bill Mott thought ROYAL DELTA could win the Beldame vs HAVRE DE GRACE so I have to believe Mott thought he would run his filly against older horses in order to get her ready for this race. PLUM PRETTY ran beautifully at this race course in May and do they come any gutsier than IT'S TRICKY? With ASK THE MOON giving PLUM PRETTY some pressure on the front end, I believe it sets up for a stretch duel between IT"S TRICKY and ROYAL DELTA and I'm giving the nod to Mott and #6, ROYAL DELTA to bring home Jose Lezcano first in the Distaff. Cannot wait to see this race.

Enjoy Friday's races and look for my picks for Saturday's races (and Friday's post mortem) tomorrow morning.

Storylines for SATURDAY

Can UNCLE MO get the 10F in the Classic? Can GOLDLIKOVA get 4 in a row?
SHACKLEFORD vs TRAPPE SHOT in the Dirt Mile.
BIG DRAMA two Sprints in a row?

Don't be the average goof. See you Saturday morning for DAY 2 of the BREEDERS CUP

-James McManus